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    Threat of a bearish cycle on equities 

    The effects of a third oil shock:
    It is clear that our scenarios on European indices and
    oil are long-fire. The remarks of Mr Trichet last Thursday
    announcing a probable rise in interest rates of the Central Bank
    European next month to curb inflation have revived the
    European currency. For mechanical effect, the dollar has served bending
    propeller oil. We can not keep the governor sole
    responsible for this volatility although we perceive today
    the negative aspect of a speech dissonance between the Fed and
    ECB. Although it has been the trigger, the weak dollar has been
    supported by the sharp rise in unemployment in the USA.

    Oil: The New Deal
    This new increase of oil is historic in its magnitude in such a short
    duration. This new outbreak reflects the structural increase
    the demand in Asia and most importantly, has been fuelled by threats barely
    Friday veiled Israeli strikes against Iran. The Minister of
    Transport of the Hebrew state has ruled an inevitable attack
    his country against Iranian nuclear sites. We were discussing this
    risk to the end of 2008 in our study on oil
    as one of exogenous factors likely to anihiler any analysis
    on a reliable technical Light Crude changing vertical.

    A dazzling own rebound to remain in the annals:
    The Crude has indeed rebounded, rising 121.60 level than
    139.12 to close at $ 138.54 an increase of 18 ever seen
    $ 24 hours. Following our study on the downward
    oil of 22 last May, established a Crude above $ 135
    then confirmed the sharp correction of its dizzying climb,
    to lose in two weeks prsè fourteen dollars, rising to
    ten sessions 135.09 $ 121.61 $ treaty Thursday, June 5.

    The correction could become a consolidation:
    The announcement of additional provisions related to subprimes by new banks,
      recapitalization in the amount Astronomical a U.S. bank
      many annalyses Cassandra favor of a $ 140 oil,
      even $ 200 institutions recognized OPEC sees no need
      to increase its production at this stage, offsetting the erosion
    dollar became a currency monkey, the G8 meeting this weekend in Japan
    reconnaîssant its impotence in the face of the outbreak of the barrel, all elements
    supported the advent of a new danger bearish on the indices.
    The Eurostoxx has corrected the last wave of increase in the level of 3418
      than in 3879. Nevertheless, as we detail in our studies
      28 May this year, breaking levels in 3600 sounded the alert.

    Recall the risk of downward mentioned:

    "The sword of Damocles in people's minds:
    The training course over the medium term reminiscent of a head-shoulder with a shoulder first formed in 2006, the head fitted with its highest Treaty to 4608 in summer 2007 and the formation of the second shoulder in 2008 reinforced our bullish scenario underway. The line of neck not break subject to validate this pattern black lies on the level of 3377. A break of this level would lead to the index of medium-term objectives located on the levels of 3226 and 2902. A first signal would result in a passage below the level of 3600, the ratio is close to 0,618 correction last two months of rising stock markets. "

    Last chance to rebound salutary:
    Unless a magic wand at the beginning of the week
    to rebound strongly on indexes correlated with
    a marked decline of oil and make double bottoms
    on the levels of 3418 on eurostoxx and 4417 on the CAC,
      we could see the famous black scenario already mentioned
    damoclès a sword above and that it was not remember our
      favorite scenario. : A head-shoulder three years formed after a cycle
      five years of rising to anticipate this cycle
    consolidation to achieve the level of 3850 on the CAC and.
    To do so would confirm a shift in the levels of 4405
    on the CAC and 3418 on the Eurostoxx.
    Retour à l'accueil

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    • CV Digital: http://www.louis-serge-real-del-sarte.com/ Consultant en Réseaux Sociaux d'Entreprise Octobre 2009 à Janvier 2010: rédaction d'un ouvrage sur 'Les Réseaux Sociaux en ligne sur Internet' aux éditions Alphée distribué au premier

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